What role should behaviour play in design reasoning in the first place?

I think about this question a lot. Most of my career has, in one way or another, been an attempt to get closer to it.

It sounds subtle. Perhaps even obvious. But the more closely I look, the more I think there is something unresolved here.

Existing design practice explains some of it. Adjacent disciplines explain more. But there is still a judgement at the centre of the work: what human behaviour does this design depend on, and how much confidence should we place in it?